By Max Musson:
As the day of the General Election draws near, falling party memberships, falling voter turnout and diminishing respect for those in public life are all factors signalling a widening gulf between those in government and the people they are meant to represent.
In recent decades voter turnout at general elections had been gradually falling, dropping from 83.9 % in 1950 to 77.7% in 1992 and following which there was a marked drop of over six percentage points to 71.4% in 1997, followed by another larger drop of eleven percentage points to 59.4% in 2001. In the two general elections since then the turnout has appeared to recover somewhat to 61.4% in 2005 and 65.1% in 2010, but this has been largely the result of the campaign to encourage wider postal voting and other initiatives such as ‘Operation Black Vote’ designed to increase electoral participation by ethnic minority voters.
The Turnout at UK Parliamentary Elections [1]:
The result of low voter turnouts has been to create a situation in which the legitimacy of government is increasingly called into question, as individual candidates and whole governments are now elected with the active support of only a minority of electors.
For example, in 1997, the voter turnout was 71.4% and New Labour were elected with just 43.2% of the vote. This means that the percentage of the total electorate that voted for Tony Blair’s first Labour government was just (71.4 x 43.2 /100 =) 30.9%.
Less than one in three of the electorate actually voted Labour, yet Tony Blair and his Labour government were elected with a majority in the House of Commons of 179!
A similar situation existed in 2001, when Labour won 40.7% of the vote on a voter turnout of just 59.4% and this means that Blair’s second Labour administration, which enjoyed a Commons majority of 167, was elected with the support just (59.4 x 40.7 /100 =) 24.2% of the electorate!
Worse still, was the situation in 2005, when Tony Blair was re-elected to the third term in office, by just 35.2% of a 61.4% turnout, which means that third Labour administration, with a majority of 66 MPs in the House of Commons, had the support of just (61.4 x 35.2 / 100 =) 21.61% of the electorate!
When David Cameron’s Conservative administration took office in 2010, despite winning 36.1% of the vote on a turnout of 65.1%, i.e. having the support of a greater percentage of the electorate than Labour in 2005, (65.1 x 36.1 =) 23.5%, the Conservatives did not have a Commons majority and were only able to form a government through coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Furthermore, it has now become normal for two out of every three MPs to lack the support of a majority of local voters, and an increasing number now win their seats with only around 40 per cent of the vote. The ‘First Past The Post’ voting system used in our General Elections, means that two thirds of MPs, 433 of those elected in 2010, did not have the support of a majority of the voters in their constituencies [2].
With just over 1% of the population, political party membership in the UK is a distinctly minority pursuit. Furthermore, with more than 1 million members each, there are more members of the Caravan Club, or the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, than of all Britain’s political parties put together.
Again, these are astounding statistics and they are the result of a dramatic decline in recent decades in the numbers of people identifying with political parties sufficiently to want to be members and give them active support.
Declining Political Party Membership [3][4]:
More recent figures released this year, show the membership of the above political parties as: Conservatives – 149,800; Labour – 190,000; and LibDems – 44,000.
There have been in recent decades, a catalogue of political scandals, which have served to rock public confidence in our government and in our politicians and which have exposed the current class of professional career politicians as venal and corruptible and unworthy of our trust.
Such scandals included; the cash-for-questions affair in1994; the £1m donation to the Labour Party made by Bernie Ecclestone in 1997, which created a political scandal when the incoming Labour government changed its policy to allow Formula One to continue being sponsored by tobacco manufacturers; The cash for honours scandal on 2006; and the long running Parliamentary Expenses scandal of recent years [5].
A consequence of all these scandals is that many people, and young people especially who might normally be expected to be amongst the most ideological of voters, have become disillusioned regarding the honesty and integrity of elected politicians and this, coupled with the failure of politicians to keep their electoral pledges has caused the public to increasingly reject the idea of political party membership and to abstain from voting altogether.
The Pattern of Non-Voting at Parliamentary Elections [6]:
Clearly, in almost all age groups there has been a marked decline in the numbers voting, and this tendency is particularly marked amongst the young with 55% of people aged 18 to 24 claiming to have abstained from voting during the 2005 General Election.
Politicians have tended on occasions to dismiss the trends highlighted above as evidence of a general apathy on the part of electors, an apathy that is widespread and not specific to, nor reflective of a deteriorating relationship with government. However, the following table does not support such an assertion.
Trends in Political Interest, 1986–2003 [7]:
This table demonstrates that the public interest in politics has remained fairly constant throughout the period from 1986 to 2003 and therefore the lack of interest in political party membership and the increasing tendency to abstain from voting clearly demonstrates, not apathy over political issues, but voter disillusionment with the conduct of elected politicians and with the electoral process altogether.
Increasingly politicians seek to excuse their lack of effectiveness by claiming that trends are ‘global’ or ‘international’ and that they are therefore unable to effect change without the support of their counterparts in other countries.
Increasingly, politicians seek to excuse their lack of action and belittle their critics by claiming that issues are more complex than the man in the street can appreciate, and by dismissing seemingly obvious and in many cases electorally popular solutions as ‘crudely simplistic’ and ‘unlikely to succeed’, even though no attempt has been made to test them.
However, politicians are increasingly seen as self-serving, venal and corrupt; accepting ‘cash for questions’, ‘cash for honours’ and ‘cash for influence’; using their elected positions to line their pockets and as a base from which to launch subsequent and lucrative careers as lobbyists on behalf of vested interest groups when their term in office runs out.
Elected politicians of all three of the main political parties increasingly appear at odds with the electorate over issues of great concern; supporting continued mass immigration into Britain when the public are strongly in favour of strict immigration controls; supporting membership of the European Union and acquiescing to increasing demands from the EU, when the majority of the public want the influence of the EU to be curtailed; refusing to take a hard line on crime when the public are crying out for such an approach; and allowing British industry to go to the wall or be exported abroad, when the public want our industries and the jobs they provide to be protected from unfair overseas competition.
Regarding all these issues and many more, elected politicians are increasingly seen as contemptuous of public opinion and what is worse, they are seen to be acting as a cartel, thereby denying the public any real electoral choice. With regard to all of the issues identified above, Labour, the Conservatives and the LibDems have virtually identical policies and therefore, whichever of these parties the electrate votes for, government policy remains the same.
Furthemore, when one realises that successive governments have been formed with the active support of less that 1 in 4 of the electorate, it is unacceptable and it undermines the moral legitimacy of our democratic system that they govern with such disregard for the wishes of the majority of the British people.
Such a state of affairs increasingly poses a threat to democracy as finding themselves living in a society that does not reflect their wishes, and under an apparent tyranny which does not protect or promote their interests, disaffected and alienated sections of the public already exhibit an increased readiness to challenge the legitimacy of government policy and a reduced willingness to sacrifice in the wider interests of our society.
Our society is therefore becoming more self-centred and less cohesive and there is a growing propensity among less responsible sections of the public to indulge in violent and destructive protests and demonstrations such as were seen during the riots that took place during the summer of 2011.
There are now legitimate concerns among large sections of the public that if the democratic system in this country remains unresponsive to public opinion, and if government continue to react feebly in the face of those who take the law into their own hands, this could well set in motion a train of events that will lead to an increasingly violent and turbulent political future in which electoral politics will play a diminishing role.
Never before has there been a more pressing need for all people of goodwill to organise with a view to effecting a root and branch reform of our political system, and so that government will once again reflect the majority views of the electorate and implement policies that put the interests of the British people first.
[1] Source: https://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm
[2] Source: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/minority-mandates/
[3] Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12934148
[5] Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_scandals_in_the_United_Kingdom
[7] Source: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/spp/publications/unit-publications/112.pdf
By Max Musson © 2015
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[NB. With minor modifications only, this article is in effect a republication of an article first published in 2012.]
Michael Woodbridge
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Thank you Max for a very interesting article. The statistics were particularly welcome because another thing that has declined over the past 60 years has been newspaper willingness to present accurate facts. For instance, there was a time after any election when ‘The Broadsheets’ would publish a detailed account of each candidate’s total vote alongside his percentage vote, together with the same details for the previous election. As a result of a more factual account the reader was in a better position to develop his own interpretation of events. Nowadays we’re expected to swallow the pre-digested opinions of the reporter whole.
A noticeable aspect of the current election is the dearth of election posters displayed outside individual houses. Most readers will remember when streets were festooned with different coloured posters, all vying with one another for support. As the undercurrent of serious political issues has become more desperate whilst the statements of politicians have become increasingly inane, it is probably that individuals are more reluctant to identify themselves with particular parties.
Apart from a few large posters, obviously paid for by the political parties themselves, one would not even get one’s petrol money back if one travelled around the country and were granted a fiver for every poster spotted.
Michael
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I’ve been travelling through some of the marginal seats near where I live (Ilford North, Basildon South and East Thurrock, Harlow and Thurrock). In the last of these, there are quite a few placards in people’s gardens (especially in the Chadwell St Mary ward). Thurrrok constituency is one of the most marginal in the entire country (Tory majority in 2010 just 92 votes over Labour or 0.2% of the vote). It’s a UKIP target seat. When I went around it last Friday, I spotted about three Tory posters/placards, quite a few UKIP ones but more Labour so if the ‘poster wars’ are any guide to the likely outcome, I think will see a Labour MP elected there on Thursday with UKIP coming a close second.
Stefan
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Perhaps the public have noticed it doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always gets in.
It shows all the hype on TV isn’t really of interest to the public, there’s a pretense that there is.
All the false little dramas of “He said”, “She said” & the Ed stone, neatly demonstrating the death of politics.
Folkvar
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Very enlightening piece. A terrible state of affairs that we can be ruled by those for so long without even 30% support of the population. Worse still is knowing that many of those that do vote only vote tribally without even understanding what it is they’re actually voting for. It’s the dumb nature of so many that is really destroying us.
Michael
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I’ve always thought apathy and let’s be honest here the dumb nature of so many who don’t know what the various parties really stand for is our main problem.
Mark
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Yes, people are more and more fed up with the lies of the establishment political parties, and disillusioned with the whole political process! It is such a shame there is no serious alternative for people to vote for!
The key is to harness and use the building sense of disillusionment and frustration of the people with the corrupt political system in our country, and on this foundation to build a mass movement capable of smashing the establishment’s political party puppet show and taking power! The time is ripe to make the powers that be reap what they have sown!
TiglathUK
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Cunning Cameron’s offering a referendum on a new deal on EU –to trick conservative-minded voters away from voting UKIP. When interviewed, he doesn’t entertain the possibility of losing any vote! If the referendum happens, it will clearly be heavily rigged, and only after an expensive propaganda campaign, like the Irish ‘re-think’. The EU may throw him a few lifelines to pretend it’s reformed.
Michael
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It was heavily rigged in 1975 as well. We only had a referendum AFTER we had joined to decide whether to STAY IN or not. Then, politicians from opposite ends of the political spectrum like Enoch Powell and Tony Benn were against us staying in but the media, of course, had a field day and they simply said look how the ‘extremist’ politicians like Enoch and Tony Been are anti our membership and compare them to the ‘moderate’ ones like Edward Heath who support it..
Yes, just as in 1975, our ‘partners’ will give the British PM a few minor concessions and then he can say to the British people the EU has been reformed and so he will recommend we stay in it. Will the British people fall for the con trick again like they did in 1975? There must be a high chance they will.
Max Musson
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I can also remember that Sainsbury’s gave all their employees the day off if they wanted to go and campaign for a ‘Yes’ vote, while the same offer was not made to employees who wanted to vote ‘No’.
X
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And of course, the election is decided by a few tens of thousands who live in marginal constituencies: more than 40 million votes are meaningless.
Michael
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Yes, the First Past The Post system (an absurd name for it as most MPs now get less than 50% of the vote in their seats so there is no real ‘winning post’) is a archaic fraud which needs to be done away with as soon as possible. We have multi-party politics in this country now and so we need an electoral system designed for that fact rather than have one which only really works well when you have two major parties who get 85, 90, 95 percent plus between them. Yes, people who live in marginal seats have real influence on the election result whereas those of us who live in Tory or Labour strongholds (I’m in one of the Tory Party’s very safest seats) have a vote which is worth a lot less because First Past The Post is based purely upon geography and where you live in the country. Somebody’s vote should have roughly equal value NO MATTER WHERE the individual voter lives in the country.
REAL democracy is ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE, ONE ROUGHLY EQUAL VALUE to your vote!
Shaun
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The fake revolutionary, Russell Brand, has just announced that he’s going to vote Labour to ”stop the Tories getting in”. When you have people such as Mr. Brand guiding the masses, through their constant exposure in the mainstream media, you have a situation where people either make stupid decisions, like voting Labour, or they don’t vote at all.
heechee
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Politics are dead, it has betrayed everyone and obviously more and more have come to that conclusion and understand their needs and wishes are not going to be fulfilled by Westminster.
Max and the Western Spring group are right to work outside this Political system of betrayal and lies, and go it alone to create somewhere decent to call home. It will have to live within their rules to begin with but those figures suggest politics and government, as we know it, is dying. When it’s gone only those prepared can profit.
Davy
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Labour Leader Ed Miliband on the Board of Deputies’ Jewish Manifesto.’
Max Musson
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Miliband is not the only one brown-nosing the Jewish community as both Clegg and Cameron are at it too.
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Clegg:
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Cameron:
Stefan
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I’m slightly puzzled at the wasted mileage & carbon emissions of the battle buses ploughing up & down the country, we know that the only constituencies that matter are the marginal ones, why visit places that have predictable outcomes?
The TV “news” gets to the other voters in the safer seats.
Obviously for us the whole thing is a sham as the government will get in, with maybe 5 UKIP MP’s representing anything like our viewpoint.
Stefan
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13% of the vote and 1 seat!
It shows along with other examples how broken the system is!
Stefan
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Anyway at least voting doesn’t stop us doing other things to advance our cause!