Max Musson’s article on the disastrous ineptitude of the Conservative campaign in the recent general election leads me on to explore one or two further implications of the debacle – and it was a debacle no matter how much Mrs. May’s supporters protest that she actually won the election – perhaps she did, technically, but we all know who really won it.
In Paul Nuttall’s resignation speech he said that within eighteen months Ukip would be “bigger than ever” (not bad for a party which in two years has collapsed from four million votes to around 600,000). Clearly he expects that Brexit will be betrayed in some fashion and Ukip will profit accordingly. Nigel Farage added to this expectation when he hinted that he might undergo another of his reincarnations – surely he’s already had nearly as many as Dr. Who – should it look as if Brexit was not going to be delivered. Why these fears? Because Arlene Foster, the Leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, Mrs. May’s likely allies, has expressed her opposition to a hard Brexit, and anything other than a hard Brexit is not a Brexit and will not deliver immigration control.
Although the Labour Party is committed to Brexit, it’s representatives, including Mr. Corbyn himself, have repeatedly made it clear that the economy comes first and that they will support nothing which does not include a free trade agreement. As the EU is unlikely to offer any such agreement which does not come with the “four freedoms” attached, there we have a soft Brexit again.
A continuation of freedom of movement with a net inflow of EU citizens of 250,000 to 350,000 per annum might well stimulate renewed growth for Ukip, but it is unlikely to be sustained in the long term because of a new phenomenon observed at this election, a greatly increased “youth vote”. Young people are, as we all know, way more relaxed about immigration than their elders, and as they themselves climb the ladder of the years they take those attitudes with them, while those elders drop off the top of the ladder at the rate of half a million per year. Conservatively minded people like to think that as young people age they become more conservative; they do, but what they become more conservative about are the attitudes and values which they have brought with them from their youth. So electoral pressure about immigration and related matters is likely to slacken as the years pass, even if immigration itself continues unchecked.
The inexorable advance up the ladder of the years of those who are now young, opens up the very real prospect of a far Left government within the foreseeable future, perhaps as early as 2022. Imagine a government of “social justice warriors”! Imagine the effect that that might have on us! That is another reason why it is essential that we do not delay in the creation of our community of mutual support, assistance and protection which I outlined in my article “The Folk” published at this address on the 24th April – it is a survival capsule within which our people can survive and thrive. To mix my metaphors: there’s a storm coming; batten down the hatches!
By Frederick Dixon © 2017
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